The main bank of Russian will likely turn hawkish today. Time to sell USD/RUB?
High chances of a rate cut by the RBA
The Reserve bank of Australia will release the rate statement and announce the update on the interest rate on February 4, at 5:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD
The market expects the RBA to cut its interest rate from 0.75% to 0.5% during the February meeting. What may drive the central bank to do so? Firstly, it is the inflation rate. Despite an upbeat CPI released last week, the level remains below the RBA target. Thus, the bank may need to take accommodative measures. At the same time, the unemployment level remains pretty high at 5.1%. Let's not forget other risks including bushfires in Australia and coronavirus. Both of them are proven to have a great impact on the economy. That is why the Australian regulator may take some serious steps to support the economy of the country. As a rule, the shift towards more easing will weaken the Australian dollar.
• If the RBA cuts its interest rate, the AUD will fall;
• If the RBA keeps the interest rate unchanged, the AUD will rise.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.