The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
Hooray! It’s NFP day!
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
The US NFP report will come out on January 8 at 15:30 MT time. Keep this time free, otherwise, you risk missing the crucial event for the whole Forex world that occurs only once in a month! Let us quickly remind you of what it is and how the market usually reacts. NFP or non-farm payrolls represent the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding those who work in the farming industry. The more people are employed, the better the economic conditions are. In contrast, the fewer people are employed, the worse the economic conditions are. Easy! However, the market reaction depends on whether the actual NFP is better than the forecast or not. Elsewhere, it’s important to pay attention to two other indicators released at the same time with NFP: average hourly earnings m/m and the unemployment rate.
- If all the three indicators come out better than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
- If all the indicators are worse than the forecasts, the USD will drop.
- If NFP comes better, but earnings – worse, the USD will spike at first, but it will fall with the second wave.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.