Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
How to trade on September 16?
The market calms down ahead of the Fed’s statement this evening. Most analysts expect the central bank will deliver the dovish statement, leaving rates at low levels for even longer. Those expectations are based on the previous Fed’s report, when it allowed inflation and unemployment rates to overheat. In this case, the US dollar will dip.
Anyway, the safe-haven greenback has been already on the back foot amid upbeat market sentiment due to optimistic vaccine hopes. Donald Trump announced that a vaccine has to be ready in the mere 4 weeks! Elsewhere, US industrial production for August came out worse than analysts expected: 0.4%, while the forecast was 1.2%. However, US Empire State Manufacturing Index beat estimates: 17.0 against the forecast of 6.2.
Let’s look at EUR/USD. The RSI shows that the euro is not overvalued yet. If the pair manages to cross 1.1900, it will open doors towards the next high of August 19 at 1.1950. Otherwise, the move below 50- and 200-period moving averages at 1.1835 will drive the price lower to the support of 1.1770.
Meanwhile, economic data was also mixed in the UK. The British CPI exceeded expectations: 0.2% vs. the forecast of 0.1%. Whereas, Producer and Consumer Price Indices came out worse than forecasted. The British pound is climbing up. If it manages to cross the high of September 10 at 1.3015, it will jump to the next round number at 1.3150. In the opposite scenario, if it falls below the recent low of 1.2780, it will drop to the strong support at the lower trend line at 1.2730, which it’s unlikely to break.
The Japanese yen gained on the better-than-expected trade balance and the weak USD. Many analysts expect the pair to fall to 105.15-105.20 zone, if the Fed delivers the dovish statement this evening. If it manages to cross it, the pair will plummet to the key psychological mark of 105.00. Resistance levels are 105.50 and 105.80.
Finally, let’s talk about gold. It has escaped the triangle, breaking through its upper line. The jump above the high of September 1 at $1 990 will drive the price to the next high at $2 015. Support levels are at $1 940 and $1 925.
That’s all for today! Follow US core retail sales at 15:30 MT time and then the Fed’s statement at 21:00 MT time!
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The US Institute for Supply Management will release ISM manufacturing PMI on July 1, 17:00 GMT+3.
The United States Bureau of Economic Analysis will release monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on June 30, 15:30 GMT+3.
The governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will hold a speech on June 29 at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).