We are now past the middle of January, and this means that the largest US companies will report their earnings for the fourth quarter and many of them will provide the results of the entire 2020.
Important events on February 24-28
No way around it
It’s not an event, but a heavy presence out there. And in the absence of loud economic meetings or announcements for the last week of February, this presence becomes even heavier. Coronavirus has been having the global market under pressure for more than a month now. Whatever the dynamic of the counter-measures, the echo of this natural disaster will keep resonating for quite a while. During the week, we will be receiving messages from that front, especially for the Chinese side, both in terms of medical assistance to the population and economic revitalization of the country. As of last week, observers commented that the tip of the crisis has not been reached so far.
US: auxiliary indicators
There will no major indicators released from any side, by some of those released this week are worth checking. From the US, we will have CB Consumer Confidence (Tuesday, 17:00 MT), Durable Goods and Preliminary Quarterly GDP (Thursday, 15:30 MT), Crude Oil Inventories (Wednesday, 17:30 MT), PCE Price Index and Monthly Personal Spending (Friday, 15:30 MT) and Chicago PMI (Friday, 15:30 MT). All these indicators combined provide comprehensive information on the status of the American economy from all sides: production, inflation, retail, and energy. The recent domestic economic achievements of the US have been quite remarkable, so the question is whether this country will be able to keep the pace of expansion on all sides in view of the Coronavirus' indirect impact on it.
As we speak of the US, the media almost unanimously predict that the US dollar has all it needs to keep growing against all its counterparts in Forex. The euro has basically nowhere to go but to lose its positions to the USD. The Japanese yen, although normally regarded as safe-haven, loses value on weak domestic economic indicators in Japan and due to the impact from the suppressed trade activity from the Chinese side. The British pound, despite a slight correction upwards at the end of the week, follows a larger downtrend and also domestically has a lot to worry about.
There is no event related to gold next week. In fact, there is hardly any event ever that would be concerning specifically gold. But it definitely will be an event if the Coronavirus pushes the price of the precious metal to reach $1,700. While we speak, it trades within the 7-year-highs zone, and a mere $200 separates it from its all-time high. Crossing $1,700 would be a sure sign that the shining metal is on its way there.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.
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The Canadian central bank will make a monetary policy report and announce interest rates on Wednesday, January 20, at 17:00 MT time. Also, the BOC press conference will be held later.
USD’s rally takes a pause, while riskier assets are modestly rising.