Is the American economy cooling down?

Is the American economy cooling down?

US Core CPI will be released this Friday at 15:30 MT time.

Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, GBP/USD

The US Core Consumer Price Index has been increasing at a steady 2.3% rate since October, with the only exception of 2.4% in February. On Friday, March inflation will be announced. The consensus for the upcoming figure is 2.3%. In general, the market will be happy if the inflation stays roughly where it is now – that would mean that no significant slump in consumer spending took place. Taking into account the troublesome state of the US economy, that would be the best scenario. If inflation turns out to be lower, that would mean that people spend less, demand less, hence the sellers will have to lower prices. Therefore, the overall economic activity would slow down its pace in this case. Given the fears of recession or even depression, a 2.3% growth of Core CPI in March would probably be the best possible news.

  • If inflation is lower than expected, the USD will lose value.
  • Otherwise, the USD will gain power. 

Check the economic calenda

us core cpi.jpg

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The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now. 

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On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies. 

Latest news

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

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Market Crash Incoming?

This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.

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What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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