Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Main market movements on September 8
The US dollar continues climbing up, while the euro and the pound are dipping. Let’s have a closer look.
Fundamentals
- The USD keeps rallying after the upbeat NFP report. Moreover, the upcoming US presidential elections in combination with escalating Sino-American tensions underpinned the safe-haven greenback. Going a bit further, US authorities are planning to impose bans on goods, made of cotton from China’s Xinjiang province. Elsewhere, yesterday the US was thinking of blacklisting China tech firm SMIC, which in turn would put a lot of pressure on China’s technology companies.
- Most analysts have bearish prospects on the euro ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. As you might know, the European Central Bank is not satisfied with the appreciated single-currency as it impacts negatively exports. Therefore, the ECB statement is widely expected to be dovish, which should push the euro to the downside. However, today the better-than-expected German Trade Balance added some tailwinds to the EUR. It turned out 18.0 billion euros, while 14.9 billion were expected.
- The possibility of a no-Brexit deal weighs on the British pound. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson claimed yesterday the deadline of October 15 to end Brexit talks, but both have been still far away from reaching a compromise. Besides, the UK is going to impose new laws, which will cancel some significant parts of the EU-UK agreement. Talks will continue today. Further prolongation of the Brexit deal will weigh more on the GBP. Stay tuned!
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Technical tips
EUR/USD
EUR/USD has just bounced off the key support of 1.1800. driven by upbeat economic data. If it manages to cross it, the way towards the next support at the low of August 21 at 1.1770 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, if the pair jumps above the Friday’s high at 1.1860, it may reach the key psychological mark of 1.1900.
S&P 500
S&P 500 has reversed its losses. If the stock index goes above the high of August 25 at 3 445, it will jump higher to the next resistance at 3 480. Otherwise, the move below the key psychological mark of 3 400 will drive the price to the low of August 20 at 3 350.
GBP/USD
The British pound has sharply dropped amid the fears of a no-Brexit deal. If it falls below the low of August 25 at 1.3125, it may dip down to the next round number at 1.3050. On contrary, the move above the resistance of 1.3180 will prove the breakout of the descending channel and will drive the price upward to 1.3250.
Gold
Finally, let’s talk about gold. It has been still trading inside of the triangle. If it breaks through $1 925, it will be the pivotal point, which will push the yellow metal down to $1 910, Otherwise, the move above $1 950 will drive the price to the upper trendline near the $1 970 level.
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Latest news
The US NFP: What’s New?
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce average hourly earnings, nonfarm employment change (NFP), and the unemployment rate on July 8, at 15:30 MT time.
What Are FOMC Insights?
The Federal Open Market Committee, a committee within the Federal Reserve, will reveal a detailed record of the central bank’s last meeting on July 6 at 21:00 MT.
Will Australian Cash Rate Change?
The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its cash rate and make a statement about future rate policy on Tuesday, July 5, at 07:30 MT.
