The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Market updates on August 21
Key events ahead:
Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time;
Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time;
FOMC meeting minutes – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time.
- USD/CAD has been moving down. The first support for the pair will lie at 1.33. If the Canadian dollar is supported by the higher-than-expected CPI data, the chance of the fall towards the 50-period SMA at 1.3276 on H4 will increase. In case of a weaker figures of CPI, the pair may reverse towards the resistance at 1.3338.
- On the H4, we can see that EUR/USD has been consolidating after the rise above the 1.1088 level. If the FOMC minutes are more dovish than the market expects, the pair will rise higher to the 1.1106-1.1114 levels. In case of a strong US dollar, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1088. The next support will lie at 1.1075.
- The crude oil’s prices are awaiting the time when the level of oil inventories will be published. The price of WTI is currently trading near the 200-period SMA at $56.45 on the 4-hour chart. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at $56.72. After that, pay attention to the $56.94 level. If the number of barrels is bigger, that the expectations, the price of WTI will fall towards the support at $55.9. The next support will lie at $55.2 (100-period SMA).
- Brent is testing the highs above the 100-period SMA at $60.4 on the 4-hour chart. If the current resistance is broken, the next key level in bull’s focus will lie at $61.41. From the downside, keep an eye on the support level at $59.53. After the breakout, the further fall will be limited by the 68.91 level.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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