The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
News to trade on December 5
- Yesterday's tweet by US president Donald Trump renewed fears about reaching the trade deal with China. "We are either going to have a REAL DEAL with China, or no deal at all”, - said Mr. Trump. In case of no deal, the US will charge a huge number of tariffs against Chinese production. It increased the risk aversion across the financial markets in Asia.
- During the Asian session, the Australian dollar fell on the release of the weak GDP. The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in the 3rd quarter, a lower level than the expected 0.6%. The decline happened due to the increased household consumption, driven by spending on food and housing. In addition, the household saving ratio declined to 2.4% in the 3rd quarter. This is the lowest saving rate since December 2007.
AUD/USD has already tested the support at 0.7285 on the news. The strong USD can make the pair retest this level. If the risk-on sentiment across the equity markets increases due to more certainty in the US-China trade deal, the aussie will rise towards the resistance at 0.7370.
- EUR/USD fell as the US Dollar had strengthened yesterday after the optimistic comments by the FOMC member John Williams. He anticipates further interest rate hikes by Fed.
After that, the risk-off sentiment contributed to the rise of the greenback. As for the euro, the Italian budget news keeps triggering investors and traders.
If the EUR is supported by the positive news from Italy, EUR/USD can rise towards the resistance at 1.1391. Otherwise, if the USD keeps gaining, the pair can stick below the support at 1.1329.
- The European Central Justice announced on Tuesday that the UK could withdraw the Article 50 anytime. That means the country can move out of Brexit and stay within the European Union. However, the British Prime Minister said the country would not quit Brexit under any circumstances. In addition, May lost the three key votes yesterday. Two of them were forcing her to publish secret government legal advice on her Brexit deal. The prime minister said she would release it on Wednesday.
If more uncertainties on the Brexit agreement come out, GBP/USD can stick below the support at 1.2694. In case of more certainty, the pair will rise towards the resistance at 1.2778.
- The Bank of Canada rate statement is scheduled at 17:00 MT time. We anticipate the central bank to leave the rates unchanged this time, however, the Governor Stephen Poloz and his colleagues may provide hawkish statements, which may signal the possible increase in the rate in January. In addition, the recently-signed USNCA agreement supports the BOC's hawkish view. If the BOC delivers supportive comments for the CAD, USD/CAD will fall towards the support at 1.3195. If the central bank’s statement disappoints investors and the USD is stronger, USD/CAD will stick above the resistance at 1.3277.
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On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.