The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released at 14:30 MT on January 16
News to trade on November 15
- The series of unfortunate events are chasing the British pound today. At first, the release of retail sales dropped by 0.5% (vs. the expected rise of 0.2%). After that, the UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab announced his resignation. According to his words, he cannot further support the current terms of the Brexit proposal to EU. Despite that, the UK Conservative Lawmaker said that committee has the 48 letters calling for a no-confidence vote against the UK PM May As a result, GBP/USD fell significantly testing the October's lows. Up to this moment, it is testing the support at 1.2817. If more uncertainties appear, GBP/USD can extend slide towards the support at 1.2677. Positive news on Brexit will help the pair to recover. If it happens, the resistance for the pair lies at 1.3035.
- The United States is awaiting the releases of retail sales and core retail sales at 15:30 MT time. Experts forecast the total retail sales to increase by 0.6% in October. At the same time, the level of retail sales excluding automobiles will rise by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected levels will be supportive for the greenback. In addition, the speech by the Fed Chair Powell at 18:30 can bring some optimism to US dollar bulls.
Earlier today, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell could not help the USD to recover from the weak CPI release. As a result, the US dollar index could not hold its price at 97 level. If the USD gains support today from the retail release, it will rise above the resistance at 97.21. Otherwise, it can fall towards the support at 96.35, unless the Fed Chair fails to deliver a positive message.
The level of crude oil inventories is anticipated at 18:00 MT time. The number of barrels is projected to increase by the additional 2.9 million. If the actual level is higher, the oil price will extend its losses. Recently, OPEC announced the future plans of 1.4 million production cut in December. As a result, Brent gained, testing the 66.06 resistance yesterday. If OPEC continues to follow the strategy of rising barrel prices, Brent can cross the resistance at 66.06. The next resistance lies at 67.96. However, the increased levels of oil production will drive Brent towards the support at 62.98.
As for WTI, it also rose and tested the resistance at 56.26. The supply cut will pull the price above the 56.26. The next resistance is placed at 58.11. Bearish pressure can move WTI downwards to the next support at 53.25.
- The upbeat employment data for Australia supported the aussie today. The number of employed people increased by 32.8 thousand workers (vs. 19.9 expected) and the unemployment rate hit 5% (vs. the expectations of 5.1%). It helped the Australian dollar to cross the 100-day MA at 0.7254 and test the resistance at 0.7292. Risk-on sentiment across the equity market will help the Australian dollar to stick above 0.7292. However, the US Vice President Mike Pence said about no plans of meeting with Chinese officials in near future. It can increase the US-China uncertainties according to the future direction of the trade war and make the aussie fell below the support at 0.7237 towards the next support at 0.7171.
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We expect the US-China phase one trade deal to be signed on Wednesday and multiple important indicators for the USD. Plus, it is the first week of the earnings reports
The British yearly CPI will be released at 11:30 MT on January 15
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On Thursday, January 16 two central banks: the Reserve bank of South Africa and the Turkish Central Bank will make their interest rate decisions.