Geopolitical News Influence Markets
Russian-Ukrainian conflict is influencing every economic aspect…
Oil Reached 2018 Highs, German Elections Affect Euro
Latest news
- Commodities (iron ore, oil) and commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD) surged. West Texas Intermediate has reached $75 a barrel, while Brent rose to the highest mark since October 2018.
- Oil has grown by over 80% since April 2020 as the global demand recovers after the Covid-19 crisis. ING says oil ‘continues to be supported by broader concerns over tightness in energy markets’. Citigroup remains “outright bullish” on crude oil as well as gas.
- The euro is falling at the start of the week amid the German election. There is no clear winner so far. Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats stepped ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives.
- In the US, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is going to pass a $550 billion infrastructure bill this week. It should be good for the US stock market. S&P 500 has been rallying up for the fourth day in a row.
Tech outlook
EUR/USD seems weak. The pair is likely to reach the lows of August 19 at 1.1670, if it breaks through the psychological mark of 1.1700. On the flip side, if it manages to jump above the recent high of 1.1740, it may rally to the 50-day moving average of 1.1775.
Gold has reversed up from the strong support level of $1750. It lies at both the lower line of the triangle pattern and the 100-day moving average. It may reach the resistance level of $1780 soon if the uptrend continues. The jump above it will push the pair up to the psychological mark of $1800.
USD/JPY has jumped above the resistance level of 110.50 and pulled back. Indeed, the rally was quite fast and the pair needs a break. It can be just a short sell-off before further growth to 111.00. Support levels are 110.50 and 110.00.
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What’s New with Australian Unemployment Rate?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce the updated Unemployment Rate and Employment Change data on Thursday, May 19, at 04:30 MT.
Can the UK CPI surprise?
The UK Office for National Statistics will publish Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, May 18, at 09:00 MT.
The US Retail Sales Update
The US Census Bureau will announce Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on Tuesday, May 17 at 15:30 MT.
