Trading on geopolitics on March 14-18
Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Opinion polls cast a shadow on the GBP
YouGov, the key organization tracking the UK public opinion has released its final report ahead of the vote that will take place on Thursday, December 12. The news made the pound weaken versus most major currencies. Learn more!
Why is it important?
There are three scenarios of the election outcome, which are expected to affect the Brexit process and the GBP as well.
The first one is the victory of the Conservative party. As you may know, this is the party led by Boris Johnson. Analysts expect this scenario to provide certainty in Brexit, and, therefore, to push the GBP up.
The second scenario is a hung Parliament. In that case, the party with most of the votes will form the minority government. At the same time, as the seats will also be taken by the opposition Labour party, the UK will face the risks of having another Brexit deadlock. As a result, the GBP will go down.
Finally, the third scenario is the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party. The opposition leader criticizes the inability of the Conservatives to suggest any clear solution over Brexit and plans a second referendum. No surprise for this outcome to be Brexit-negative.
What do the polls say?
According to YouGov, the Tories (the Conservative party) majority has been shrinking. The final poll shows 43% for the Conservatives and 34% for the Labour. These figures increase the possibility of a hung parliament.
How did the GBP react?
The British pound dropped on the news with the wave of panic selling. The 1.32 cliff appeared to be too tough for GBP/USD and the pair has slid to the 1.31 support level.
Sourced by YouGov
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