Pound Can Outperform the Market

Pound Can Outperform the Market

What is happening?

Great Britain's office for national statistics will release CPI data on January 19, 09:00 GMT+2. This is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's the central bank's inflation target. In addition, over the last several months, investors highlighted inflation as the key measure of economic recovery. Thus, this particular reading is one of the most anticipated January events in the British economy.

Pound against other currencies

Researchers at Barclays describe the British Pound's recent performance as "resilient" as they anticipate the currency to continue outperforming key peers over the coming weeks and months. The pound was the best performing G10 currency in the first week of 2022, helped by a positioning unwind and expectations for a February interest rate hike. The market now anticipates a 75% chance of a second rate hike coming from the Bank of England at the February policy meeting, odds of which have in turn been boosted by expectations for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve in 2022.

The last readings created a vast bullish movement in GBP/USD pair. However, shortly the pair returned to 1.320.


How to trade on Britain's CPI readings?

Higher-than-expected inflation boosts the chances for a rate hike. Thus, creating an uptrend movement in GBP against other currencies.

  • If the actual number is higher than expected – GBP will rise.
  • Otherwise – GBP may slide against USD and EUR.

Check the economic calendar

Instruments to trade: GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, EUR/GBP.


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S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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