The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
Soon Bullish Rally for Gold
The winter is coming, and risky markets expect a rally to come with it. Will this December be bullish for stocks, crypto, and gold? A pack of news will surely help you out.
Events of the day:
12:00 GMT+2, CPI Flash Estimate y/y
15:15 GMT+2, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
20:30 GMT+2, Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Gold analysis ahead of Powell’s speech
The metal looks bullish as the US Federal Reserve is likely to show dovish signs starting from today’s Fed chair Jerome Powell speech. If so, the USD will decrease, gaining momentum on its way down. On the daily chart, the US dollar index is near the 200-period MA, so a breakout will mean a lot to the market.
Therefore, gold may soon become extremely bullish, breaking above the resistance of $1765 and reaching $1785. Buyers may need to wait for the breakout before opening a trade.
You need to know this:
- Bank of America: The US economy will enter a recession around the middle of next year, and this will push the Fed to cut rates at the end of 2023.
- The BoE governor Bailey: No discussion with the government about the timing and pace of BOE asset sales.
- Annual CPI in Australia is significantly lower than expected (6.9% actual vs. 7.6% forecast). However, the AUD neither soared nor plunged.
- The stock market’s Fear & Greed index is in the greed zone (61/100) as the US500 index declines for the third day in a row.
- Bitcoin broke through the descending triangle and reached $17K today. The cryptocurrency market is rising ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
- South Africa’s unemployment rate declined for a third consecutive quarter. It’s now 32.9% vs. 33.9% the quarter before.
- Bloomberg forecasts that China will gradually relax Covid containment measures over the next seven months, resulting in a full reopening by mid-2023
Take advantage of the market and good luck!
The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.