Market Outlook For February 21-25
Last week was full of surprises! The US dollar plunged despite a better-than-expected retail sales report…
Tensions escalated in White House
Markets reversed from huge losses, caused by Trump’s tweets yesterday evening. The US President called off stimulus talks between Democrats and Republicans, when the agreement has been almost reached. As a result, stocks and riskier currencies enormously dropped. Trump’s rival Joe Biden tweeted in response that “the president turned his back on you”, which in turn increased Biden’s chances to win. Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in an interview that Trump is going to lose the upcoming elections and even mentioned that people can already “forget about him”.
However, late Tuesday Trump reiterated in a series of tweets that Congress is going to unveil a huge amount of money for airlines, smack businesses, and also stimulus checks to Americans. After that, the overall market sentiment has improved, underpinning riskier assets and weighing on safe havens.
Fed’s meeting minutes will be out in the late evening and will shed a light on how US officials see the current economic conditions and what actions they will take to support the recovery.
Let’s look at the charts.
EUR/USD has approached the key resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.1765. It’s likely to bounce off this level and fall to yesterday’s low of 1.1730. The move below this level will drive the price to the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1705. On the flip side, if it manages to break 1.1765, it will jump to the 200-period moving average at 1.1800.
Moving averages has created a golden cross on the 4 hour-chart, signaling S&P 500 is likely to move up. If the stock index manages to cross the 200-peiod moving average of 3 390, the doors towards the next peak of 3 420 will be open. Support levels are 3 330 and 3 300.
Gold has turned to the upside after a huge slump. The move above the key psychological mark of $1 900 will push the price higher to the key resistance of $1 920. On the flip side, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $1 875, the way to the next support of $1 850 will be open.
Finally, let’s talk about the British pound. Brexit talks continue, and officials have reported some progress, but fisheries still remain the main sticking point. The GBP is driven upward by the risk-on sentiment now. If it jumps above the 1.3000, the way towards the 50% Fibo level at 1.3080 will be clear. Support levels are at the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.2865 and 1.2820.
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