Current Risks for Developed Economies
Oil prices are rising while the US government is on the verge of shutting down. How will it affect the market?
The US CPI is out: will the USD grow?
The US monthly CPI is announced on Tuesday at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
In the current circumstances, the CPI is a direct indicator of the US economic recovery. After a slump to 255.768 in April-May, it has been only increasing throughout the next three months to come to the current 259.681. This level is even higher than the last pre-virus high of 259.05 which is a good sign. Now, the question is whether the US economy will keep the pace of recovery. If it does, it will be taken as a positive sign by the market, and the USD may rise on that. Otherwise, weak consumer price data may indicate a slowdown and send the USD into a bearish phase.
- If the CPI exceeds expectations, the USD will rise.
- Otherwise, the USD will fall.
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