The most impactful releases of this week will fill the market with volatility and sharp movements. Be ready to take action!
Trading plan for May 6
Pay attention to the market sentiment today!
During the Asian trading hours, the risk sentiment in the market was covered in red after the tweet by US president Donald Trump. He said that US tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese goods will go up from 10% to 25%. This news created rumors about the possible delay of the trade negotiations between the US and China and pulled the risk-weighted assets down. At the same time, the safe-haven Japanese yen gained significantly.
Later, China expressed hopes that the negotiations will continue in Washington. The Chinese part confirmed the preparation of the delegation to the US for further talks. It helped the risk sentiment to recover a little bit. For how long, though?
If Mr. Trump surprises us with more negative comments or China cancels its delegation for further talks on May 8, the risk aversion will appear and pull the risky assets down.
Let’s consider the charts.
On the daily chart of the AUD/USD pair, it has fallen below the weekly pivot support at 0.6980 but managed to recover towards the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.7024. If the risk-off sentiment takes over the market, the pair will fall below the 0.6980 level towards the next support at 0.6940. If we look at indicators, Parabolic SAR shows the downward movement for the pair, ADX demonstrates that bearish pressure continues and RSI is placed close to the oversold zone. If it enters this zone and then leaves it, it will provide us a short-term buying opportunity.
On the H4, the pair could not overcome the support at 0.6963 and formed an inverted hammer candlestick – a sign of a bullish reversal. At the moment the aussie is targeting the resistance at 0.7. If bulls break this level, the next key resistance will be placed at 0.7024. On the flipside, if the sellers take over the market, they will pull the pair to the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6980. The next support lies at 0.6963.
The risk aversion resulted in the gap down day for the USD/JPY pair. It has even tested the ground below the weekly pivot support at 110.50. At the moment, USD/JPY is trading near the 100-day SMA and the resistance at the weekly pivot level at 110.79. If bulls are strong, they will break this level and the next resistances will be placed at 110.93 and 111.05. On the other hand, risk off sentiment will make the pair retest the 110.50 level. The next support will lie at 109.94. Parabolic SAR here demonstrates the downward movement, while ADX shows the strength of bears.
Let’s look at the H4. The pair could not stick above the 110.79 level for too long as bears pulled it back to the support at 110.64. If the sentiment in the market is positive, USD/JPY will retest the resistance at 110.79. The next resistance in focus lies at 110.93. Alternatively, we will see a fall towards the support at 110.64. The break of this level will pull the pair lower to the support at 110.64.
We prepared an outlook of major events of this week. Check it and be ready!
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