Will RBA press AUD down again?
The Reserve Bank of Australia will make a rate statement on March 2, at 5:30 MT time.
USD starts the week with gains
Fundamentals
- Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
- As for the vaccine, European countries reported a delay in Pfizer’s vaccine deliveries. They are receiving significantly fewer doses of the Pfizer coronavirus vaccine than expected.
- US Core retail sales came out much worse than the forecast. Sales dropped by 1.4%, while the estimate was only -0.1%. It marked the third decline in a row.
- Unlike the US and EU, China encouraged investors with better-than-expected GDP and industrial output reports. Notably, China’s economy exceeded its pre-pandemic growth rates.
Technical tips
EUR/USD steeply plunged, but the support of the 50-day moving average in combination with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2070 stopped the pair. A short pullback to the upside is expected. If it finally manages to break this level, the way down to the key psychological mark of 1.2000 just above the 50.0% Fibo level will be open. Resistance levels are 1.2150 and 1.2200.
GBP/USD is edging lower towards the one-week low at 1.3500. The pair shouldn’t break it on the first try. However, if it moves below this level, the doors towards the lower trendline and the 50-day moving average at 1.3420 will be open.
Gold takes a break after a steep decline and moves sideways in the $1 825-1 865 range. The 50-period moving average has already crossed the 100-period MA and now it is approaching the 200-period MA to make the second dead cross. Therefore, we can assume that gold will fall further to the next support of $1 800, once it breaks below the support of $1 825.
Finally, let’s discuss the aussie. The risk-off sentiment pressed AUD/USD below 0.7700. The pair has already crossed two moving averages and isn’t likely to stop. If it drops below the low of January 4 at 0.7650, the way down to the psychological mark of 0.7600 will be clear. Resistance levels are 0.7740 and 0.7800.
Follow the speech of Bank of England's Governor Bailey at 15:30 MT time.
Similar
NFP is coming!
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time.
Rise of NZD, dovish Fed, and stocks indices' sell-off
Stock indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq are falling for seven days in a row. The New Zealand dollar skyrocketed to almost two-years highs. Fed’s Powell held a meeting yesterday and said that the central bank wouldn’t tight its easing policy anytime soon.
Latest news
NVIDIA beat earnings forecasts!
The giant chip maker exceeded analysts’ expectations. Even with a global GPU shortage!
OPEC may increase oil supply at meeting on March 4
OPEC will hold a meeting on March 4, where it should announce its decision on further oil output.
Risk on is back on market
The risk-on is back on the market as investors focus on the projections for a stronger-than-expected economic rebound and the Fed’s pledge to prolong support for the rest of the year.
Deposit with your local payment systems
