The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
USD surged after Fed's speech. NFP is eyed
- The US dollar skyrocketed on Thursday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. He did not express any concern about a recent sell-off in Treasuries and emphasized that this sell-off in bonds won’t push the Fed to intervene earlier than expected. Therefore, the prospect of low rates for longer triggered a spike in bond yields that in turn increased the USD demand. The greenback surged to the highs unseen since December.
- Meanwhile, the US Senate passed Biden’s $1.9 trillion relief bill. As a result, the much-awaited stimulus should be finally approved by the end of this week.
- OPEC and allied producers agreed to extend production cuts for another month, even despite the recent surge of oil prices. Moreover, Saudi Arabia announced that it would prolong its extra cut of 1 million barrels a day through April. WTI oil jumped to $65.00, Brent – to $67.50.
EUR/USD was trading inside the ascending channel since mid-summer and Fed’s comments pressed the pair down and as a result, it broke through the lower line of the channel at 1.2000. It has approached the next support of 1.1950. The move below it will drive EUR/USD to the next round number of 1.19000. Resistance levels are 1.2000 and 1.2050.
GBP/USD dipped as well. It is getting closer to the support of 1.3860. If it manages to break it, the way down to the psychological mark of 1.3800 will be clear. On the flip side, the move above the high of March 2 at 1.3950 will drive the pair to the next resistance of 1.4000.
USD/JPY has broken through the key psychological mark of 108.00, the high unseen since June of 2020. The move above 108.50 will drive the pair up to the 200-weekly moving average of 109.00. Support levels are the round number of 108.00 and the 100-weekly MA of 107.20.
Finally, let’s discuss WTI oil. It has approached the resistance of $65.00. If it manages to break it, the way up to the psychological mark of $70.00 will be clear. Support levels are $59.00 and 55.00. If you want to trade WTI, you need to choose WTI-21J, which expires on March 19.
Follow one of the most important events for the Forex market – NFP at 15:30 MT time!
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.