S&P ASX 200: one step from a breakthrough
The Australian economy has been on a steady recovery path, and now we have a very symbolic confirmation that S&P ASX 200 is about to cross 7000!
USD/TRY: shock waves
Previous trend
In November, one US dollar was worth 8.5 Turkish liras - as many as never before. Going through turbulent ups and downs, the Turkish lira was depreciating at an accelerating pace. That month, Naci Agbal was appointed the Turkish Central Bank's governor. He immediately started steering the economy out of the crisis by increasing the rate to fight inflation. That started working: from above 8.00 in November 2020, USD/TRY dropped to 7.00 in February. There was a recent spike, though, but it was suppressed down to 7.20.
What happened
Nevertheless, the Turkish lira was destined to see its dreams of appreciation crushed. The tenure of the Turkish Central Bank's governor Naci Agbal was suddenly terminated - as was his course for the lira's restoration. As a result, USD/TRY shot up to 8.50 erasing all the gains of the lira. Global investors were spooked by this event - it completely undermines their trust in the Turkish Central Bank, the Turkish lira, and the Turkish economy, as all the three become subjects of unpredictable willpower of higher authorities. Nothing specific to Turkey, though: that's a common curse of most developing countries - especially those whose leaders prefer to shrug off the unnecessary burden of democratic social development with its corresponding economic attributes...
What may happen
Commenting on the event, the Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister said the Turkish lira will keep circulating in a free-market and liberal foreign exchange environment. Objectively, there was little else to say to prevent a total flee of global investors. Fundamentally, that means that very likely, the Turkish lira will follow a very similar trajectory to what happened in August: a short-lived drop of USD/TRY following by the all-erasing rise to new all-time highs.
What to do
Short-term: correction down to 7.50
The area above 7.50 may well be a target for bears just to stabilize the currency pair.
Mid-term and long-term: uptrend to 8.00
Given such an unstable political and economic environment, there is little choice for USD/TRY but to rise - very probably, up to 8.00 and above.
Similar
Strong USD is back
Jump in to know the latest market news and trade ideas for today!
USD is at two-week low, gold rises
Here are a short wrap of the latest news and the tech analysis of EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and gold.
Latest news
BTC skyrocketed as first crypto exchange goes public!
Coinbase Global Inc., the leading cryptocurrency exchange in the US, will go public on the Nasdaq index on April 14!
Will US inflation push USD further up?
The American inflation rate is announced on Tuesday at 15:30 MT. It’s an important event for traders as it will impact hugely currency pairs with the USD.
USD, gold, Alibaba and more on April 12
In this article, you'll find the latest news and tech analysis of EUR/USD, gold, and GBP/USD!
Deposit with your local payment systems
