The US dollar turned to the upside on Monday. Let's discuss what to expect next from the market.
What moves the market on May 18?
The day started with the poor data from Japan. The country officially fell into a recession, that’s likely to deepen further as consumers limit their spending, companies cut back on investment, production and hiring stay at low levels amid the coronavirus.
As we can see, USD/JPY didn’t react so much, it slightly moved up after the report. We shouldn’t forget that the Japanese yen is a safe haven, as well as USD. That’s why it’s hard to tell which way the USD/JPY will go this week as investors use both currencies for a safe-haven protection.
Let’s look at the chart. If the USD/JPY increases and crosses the resistance line at 107.45, it will open doors further to the next one at 107.7. Support levels are at 106.9 and 106.6.
Even so, futures on the S&P 500 climbed. It’s strange in such a risk-off market. This disconnect between economic reality and the stock markets could be associated with the comments by the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank hasn't run out of ammunition yet and could do more if required. However, he also said that the stock rally could decline significantly if there were some setbacks in the fight to contain the virus. Another reason of stocks’ fall could be the deterioration of the US-China relationship.
Moreover, the WTI oil price went above $30 a barrel! For the first time in two months! As producers continued to cut production, helping to rebalance a market. Together with a tentative recovery in demand, that’s made a repeat of last month’s plunge below zero extremely unlikely before the expiration of the WTI June contract on Tuesday. There’s still a risk, however, that oil’s recovery could be derailed if the pandemic worsens. However, prices are unlikely to drop below $20 a barrel.
Resistance is 35. Support levels are 23, 20 and 13.
Three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. Let's look how market reacts.
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