The US dollar index keeps rounding above the 103.60 historical support level. The buyers have already defended this level for three weeks, highlighting their interest in the greenback. Thus, buying USD looks less risky right now.
Will the GBP be pressed by the PMI results?
The British Flash Manufacturing PMI will be announced on Thursday at 11:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF
The Manufacturing PMI as a regular indicator was initiated in 1992 in the UK. Since then, it has never been as low as it was revealed in April. Even against an understandably low expectation of 42.0, the actual figure was 32.6 showing that sometimes the worst-case scenarios get beaten by even harsher reality. Currently, the UK economy is being restarted, but there are a lot of setbacks in this process and a lot of people are confused and disoriented with what to do and what to expect. The second quarter of 2020 is said to be worse than the first one, so that may be priced in the May release of the indicator as well. Resuming, the May Manufacturing PMI may be as low as the April one. However, if it is better than this expectation, the GBP will definitely celebrate it.
- If the Manufacturing PMI comes out stronger than thought, the GBP will rise.
- If the Manufacturing PMI results are weak, the GBP will fall.
On the H4 timeframe, the US dollar index has formed a bullish falling wedge. At the beginning of the trading session, the price is testing the upper border of this wedge. Thus, in case of a higher-than-expected Core PCE Price Index m/m, the US dollar will skyrocket against other currencies.
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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.