2020-02-25 • Updated
Have a look at MasterCard and Tesla share price performance. Both show the same period of observation – the last 7 years, since 2013. Now, Tesla made the rise from approximately $50 to almost $1000 during these years, while MasterCard rose from the same $50 to “only” $350. How good is each one?
“How good” comes down to what you need in your trade. If you have no problem admitting that the flip side of a 200% gain in 2 years is a risk to get halved in two days – meaning, you are an “honest” risk-taker – then Tesla may be good for you. Its vulnerability is its advantage – fundamental unpredictability. It’s fundamental because Tesla as an enterprise has not been fully successful in a business sense of the word, until now. It still functions largely on long-term liabilities, most of which come due in 4 years. And Tesla’s Model-3 purchase orders do not yet answer this question.
Even with the strategic horizon for electric cars as a global industry, Tesla still has the full potential to be wrecked at any time. Alternatively, it may rise to $2000, who knows. As Warren Buffet likes to say, if the knowledge of the past always led to wealth, Fortune-500 would consist of librarians.
Otherwise, if you prefer seeing your tree grow an extra apple every day, with no rush and no hustle, then MasterCard would be more interesting. Stability over risk, as usual. A clear advantage here – undeniable predictability. Recessions, wars, Coronavirus – whatever happens, the number of people will grow, the amount of money will grow, and the number of financial transactions will grow. Based on that, MasterCard is doomed to expand. The story becomes more interesting in view of the following facts.
Coronavirus causes damage. This damage made MasterCard to reduce its projections for the Q1-2020 revenue. Now, it expects its revenue to grow by just 9-10% in the first quarter, while before it was expecting to have 11-12%, similar to Q1-2019. Overall, the company expects the yearly revenue growth to stay at the lower border of the forecast. That is an alerting obstacle indeed. However, there would be no fight without a greater reward.
In the middle of February, an interesting announcement appeared in the media: MasterCard has finally obtained approval from the Chinese authorities to establish its bank card clearing in China. That means, $27trln-worth market opens its doors to the payment processing company. It’s too early to celebrate, however. First, AmEx is already there, having its formal approval since 2018. Second, local Chinese payment processing companies have long been servicing customers across the country, and they are already accustomed to paying by WeChat, etc. So yes, the path is clear, but no, it will not be an easy walk. MasterCard will have to struggle with no guarantee of success. But which is easier: fly to Mars or enter China? We will see.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.34, TP2: 78.94, TP3: 78.55, and 78.00 Bullish Scenario: Buys above 78.00 (wait for a retracement to the zone) with TP: 79.34 TP2: 80.00, and TP3: 81.00
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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